Bitcoin security budget · the gap

How big is Bitcoin's security budget gap?

As of 2026-09-07, Bitcoin pays about 0.82% of its market capitalisation a year for security. Against a 1% target, the gap is $2.77B a year — about $7.6M a day, or $52.7K per block, at a $1.56T market cap.

How the ratio is built

Miner revenue is a flow; what it protects is a stock. The ratio puts one over the other: annualised miner revenue divided by market capitalisation. At spot, Bitcoin’s miners are paid about $12.85B a year; 1% of a $1.56T market cap is $15.63B. The difference is the gap.

Where the 1% comes from

It is not this page’s number. Lyn Alden puts a healthy security spend at 0.5%–1.5% of market cap a year. James McAvity put it at 1–1.5% as of October 2023. Hasu defined the ratio in these terms in 2020, measured it at 2% at the time, and declined to name a floor. 1% is a heuristic inside that spread, not a threshold derived from an attack model. At the bottom of Alden’s band, 0.5%, there is no gap today — there is one from the 2028 halving, which no floor choice affects; see the 2028 figure.

Three bases

BasisRatioGap / yrMarket cap to cover it
Trailing-year revenue over spot market cap0.92%$1.27B$24.40B
Trailing-year revenue over average market cap0.86%$2.13B$40.93B
Spot run-rate revenue over spot market cap (published)0.82%$2.77B$53.28B

Three ways to measure the same ratio, all published. None of the three closes the gap.

Check it yourself

Both inputs are public. Annualised miner revenue: sum the last 1,008 blocks’ rewards on mempool.space and scale to 52,560 blocks a year. Market cap: any aggregator. Divide.

Where NAT comes in. NAT is a token credited to the winning miner of every Bitcoin block, computed from the block header. It issues about 5.2% of its supply a year, so its contribution to the gap is arithmetic: at a $1B market cap it would cover about 1.9% of today’s gap; the cap that would cover all of it is about $53.3B. That is a conversion between two market capitalisations, not a forecast. The full sizing, with its caveats, is on the FAQ.

Sources

Figures as of 2026-09-07 · generated 2026-09-08 from the same data file that feeds the FAQ’s sizing section. How these figures are computed · about & corrections. Machine-readable: data.json, history.csv. Dated permalink: /security-budget/2026-09-07/.